Sonar for Panta
The intelligence layer for on-chain prediction markets. Behavioural signals, cross-venue pricing and one-click non-custodial trading, built on the Panta API on Solana.
An API gives you prices. It does not give you a read.
- Prediction markets became infrastructure in 2026: Kalshi and Polymarket cleared $44.8B in a single month (June). Almost all of it off-chain, US-centric, permissioned.
- Panta puts permissionless market creation and trading on Solana behind a clean API. But an integrator gets a price and a tape, not history, not analytics, not a view of whether a Panta market is cheap or rich versus the rest of the world.
- Traders, creators and bots on Panta fly blind. Thin catalogs stay thin because nobody can see where the edge is.
- Nigeria has ~60M active bettors and a $3.6B betting market, football-first and 83% mobile, and zero on-chain markets about Nigerian events.
Sources: TRM Labs and CoinLaw prediction-market volume trackers (June 2026); GeoPoll “Betting in Africa 2026”; NAN / BusinessDay Nigeria betting market reports (2026). Panta API observations from docs/PANTA-API-FEEDBACK.md.
One screen from signal to settlement.
- Radar. Every market Panta exposes, scored from its own trade tape and priced against Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Market. The read with reasons, our own price history, cross-venue gap, resolution rule, full tape.
- Trade. Quote, sign in your wallet, broadcast, attribute. Non-custodial end to end.
- Portfolio. Positions marked to live prices, one-click claims.
- Create. Headline to resolvable market, Claude drafting the rule, Nigeria starter boards.
- Agent. Unattended paper (or live) trading on every call, settled against Panta's resolutions.
The read is built from the tape, not from vibes.
- Flow imbalance: YES minus NO share flow over the last 24h (or last 20 prints when thin).
- Momentum: YES price now vs our oldest snapshot inside 24h. Panta has no history endpoint, so Sonar records one every 10 minutes.
- Whale share and concentration: how much of the tape is one print or one wallet (HHI).
- Cross-venue gap: the same question's YES price on Polymarket or Kalshi minus Panta's.
- Composite in −100..100: 0.45·gap + 0.25·flow + 0.2·momentum + 0.1·whale, discounted for thin, stale or single-wallet tape, zero after close.
“Will there be an eviction AND will the first housemate evicted from BBNaija Season 11 on Sunday, August 16, 2026…?”
Sonar at 60% of the tape: NO 12 with YES at 12¢. Outcome: NO. Hit.
“Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix Main Race?”
Sonar: NO 13 with YES at 11¢. Outcome: NO. Hit. The same question traded on Polymarket (match 0.74), which is where the cross-venue gap comes from when both are open.
The matcher only pairs questions that share a subject (a name, a ticker, a specific number). No match is reported rather than a wrong one.
Non-custodial, attributed, on mainnet.
- 01quotePOST /primaryorderquote
- 02buildPOST /primaryorderbuild
- 03signuser wallet (Phantom, Solflare)
- 04broadcastour RPC, confirmed
- 05submitPOST /primaryordersubmit
- 06reportPOST /trades (attribution)
- Same pattern for claims (/claim/build) and market creation (/markets/create/quote → build → register).
- 14 Panta endpoints integrated behind a typed, rate-limited server client. The API key never reaches the browser.
- Stable Panta error codes map to plain-language UI: stale quote, expired quote, market left primary, insufficient USDC.
- Sandbox switch. The same flows run against Panta's pk_test_ fixtures with an empty wallet, so the product can be demonstrated, tested in CI and taught with zero spend.
A track record, not a promise.
- Sonar has run live on Kalshi and Polymarket since mid-2026 (sonar.nodalytics.xyz). This build ports the engine to Panta's on-chain tape and adds what Panta does not expose.
- The Panta backtest replays the first 60% of each resolved tape through the same function (80% hit rate). Panta's catalog is young, so the sample is small and reported as-is. The agent has been paper-trading every call since 19 September and settles against Panta's own resolutions.
Live numbers above are read from the running radar (last scan Fri, 25 Sep 2026 20:57:34 GMT).
The first Nigerian prediction markets, on Solana, priced honestly.
- Nigerians already price everything: CBN rate decisions, the NBS inflation print, the naira, NGX, Super Eagles fixtures, fuel prices. Today that happens on bookmakers with a 10–20% overround and in naira that loses value while the bet is open.
- Panta markets are USDC-settled, parimutuel, permissionless and 2-hour resolvable. Sonar's Create page ships Nigeria starter boards so a creator can list the week's questions in minutes and earn a share of every trade.
- Sonar then does what no bookmaker does: shows the crowd where each market is mispriced against the global tape, and lets them act on it from their own wallet.
- Distribution: Superteam Nigeria's builder and trader community, Solana Mobile, and the university communities where the author teaches and studies.
Three revenue lines, one engine.
Sonar creates and seeds the markets its signals say the world is missing (starting with Nigeria) and earns Panta creator fees on every trade they attract.
Every trade routed through Sonar is reported to Panta with attribution. Panta partners share in the activity they bring; Sonar is built to be the integration that brings it.
The signal and cross-venue feed as a paid API and embeddable widget for bots, creators and other Panta integrations; later, a managed agent vault.
- Costs are near zero: one Vercel deployment, one Redis, a scheduled job. The signal engine is deterministic; Claude is used only for drafting.
- Venue-neutral by design: the same engine already runs on Kalshi and Polymarket, so Sonar is also the bridge that shows off-chain traders where Solana is mispriced.
Next 90 days.
- · Live agent capital on primary windows
- · Nigeria board: 10 markets live, weekly cadence
- · Panta API feedback loop with the Panta team
- · Secondary-market trading when Panta ships the endpoints
- · Embeddable Radar widget for creators and communities
- · Telegram alerts on new calls and primary windows
- · Sonar Pro API (signals + cross-venue feed)
- · Mobile-first PWA for Nigerian traders
- · Colosseum accelerator or Solana Foundation grant milestone plan
Great Ojietohamen · GreYat Labs, Lagos
- Solo founder-engineer. Ships trading infrastructure on Solana: onchain-rbac (Solana Foundation grant), smart-tx-stack, worldcup-match-vault (trustless TxLINE settlement), GroupStage.
- Runs Sonar, a live behavioural-signal engine on Kalshi and Polymarket with a public track record.
- Everything in this repository was written during the hackathon window against the Panta API. MIT licensed. Signal design carried over from the author's off-chain product and disclosed.